If it's a wrong certificate you will most likely get very general error like below:
And if you run it on the Exchange 2013 server itself (or do the suggested web.config change):
Server Error in ‘/Autodiscover' Application.
Could not find any resources appropriate for the specified culture or the neutral culture. Make sure “Microsoft.Exchange.HttpProxy.Strings.resources” was correctly embedded or linked into assembly “Microsoft.Exchange.FrontEndHttpProxy” at compile time, or that all the satellite assemblies required are loadable and fully signed.
Description: An unhandled exception occurred during the execution of the current web request. Please review the stack trace for more information about the error and where it originated in the code.
Exception Details: System.Resources.MissingManifestResourceException: Could not find any resources appropriate for the specified culture or the neutral culture. Make sure “Microsoft.Exchange.HttpProxy.Strings.resources” was correctly embedded or linked into assembly “Microsoft.Exchange.FrontEndHttpProxy” at compile time, or that all the satellite assemblies required are loadable and fully signed.
Source Error:
An unhandled exception was generated during the execution of the current web request. Information regarding the origin and location of the exception can be identified using the exception stack trace below.
Stack Trace:
[MissingManifestResourceException: Could not find any resources appropriate for the specified culture or the neutral culture. Make sure “Microsoft.Exchange.HttpProxy.Strings.resources” was correctly embedded or linked into assembly “Microsoft.Exchange.FrontEndHttpProxy” at compile time, or that all the satellite assemblies required are loadable and fully signed.]
System.Resources.ManifestBasedResourceGroveler.HandleResourceStreamMissing(String fileName) +5454890
System.Resources.ManifestBasedResourceGroveler.GrovelForResourceSet(CultureInfo culture, Dictionary`2 localResourceSets, Boolean tryParents, Boolean createIfNotExists, StackCrawlMark& stackMark) +1173
System.Resources.ResourceManager.InternalGetResourceSet(CultureInfo requestedCulture, Boolean createIfNotExists, Boolean tryParents, StackCrawlMark& stackMark) +809
System.Resources.ResourceManager.InternalGetResourceSet(CultureInfo culture, Boolean createIfNotExists, Boolean tryParents) +35
System.Resources.ResourceManager.GetString(String name, CultureInfo culture) +572
Microsoft.Exchange.Data.Common.ExchangeResourceManager.GetStringInternal(String name, CultureInfo culture) +92
Microsoft.Exchange.Data.Common.ExchangeResourceManager.GetString(String name, CultureInfo culture) +179
Microsoft.Exchange.Data.Common.LocalizedString.System.IFormattable.ToString(String format, IFormatProvider formatProvider) +204
Microsoft.Exchange.HttpProxy.AuthMetadataHttpHandler.ReportBuilderException(HttpResponse response, AuthMetadataBuilderException ex, Boolean logCallStack, HttpStatusCode httpStatusCode, Nullable`1 overridingError) +1700
Microsoft.Exchange.HttpProxy.AuthMetadataHttpHandler.HandleBuilderExceptions(HttpResponse response, AuthMetadataBuilderException ex) +723
Microsoft.Exchange.HttpProxy.AuthMetadataHttpHandler.InternalProcessRequest(HttpContext context) +579
Microsoft.Exchange.HttpProxy.AuthMetadataHttpHandler.ProcessRequest(HttpContext context) +455
System.Web.CallHandlerExecutionStep.System.Web.HttpApplication.IExecutionStep.Execute() +913
System.Web.HttpApplication.ExecuteStep(IExecutionStep step, Boolean& completedSynchronously) +165
Version Information: Microsoft .NET Framework Version:4.0.30319; ASP.NET Version:4.0.30319.34248
As you may imagine it doesn't actually tell much information what's going on.